When ZANU PF Chairman Simon Khaya Moyo declared in September that ZANU PF was an unstoppable machine, deriding the MDC parties as political upstarts who will never ascend to the throne, many would have taken such statements as the usual bluster that comes from ZANU PF from time to time. Events since then, especially when the constitutional consultative process finally reached the capital Harare, are telling in what the ZANU PF chairperson meant.
The meetings in Harare had been abandoned amid violence and disruptions. So intense was the violence that even ZANU PF representative in the process MP Paul Mangawana had to run away from marauding ZANU PF youths in the poor suburb of Mbare. The state owned The Herald newspaper struggled with words to capture the violence, only stating that some members of political parties chanted slogans and fought. The newspaper had no guts to name which party the perpetrators belong to, neither could it garner the guts to blame the MDC parties as usual, because the evidence against ZANU PF was overwhelming.
The violence was not spontaneous but appeared well organized, not by the party on its own but with help from the state security machinery especially the intelligence. The police stood by while MDC supporters and the COPAC teams were beaten up and meetings disrupted. It had to be so in urban areas because these are strongholds of the MDC parties and ZANU PF had to flex more muscle to disrupt the constitutional making process. Intimidation in the constitutional outreach process was much easier in rural areas were communities, coming out of the violence of June 2008 are so cowed that it only takes the shaking of a matchstick box to get subservient compliance. Urban areas present a problem for ZANU PF as threats are not easily heeded, hence the intense and well coordinated violence. To beef up numbers , perpetrators had to be bused in from rural areas. Some were barefoot, visibly drunk and could not name/recognize a single street in the vicinity.
The violence in Harare over the constitutional outreach is not an isolated event that should be dismissed but a critical moment for the people of Zimbabwe more so for the MDC parties in the Unity government. The talk of a free and fair election in 2011 is now under serious doubt in circumstances were ZANU PF has no shame in demonstrating that it still has no other strategy other than violence and intimidation to win an election. The violence is an indicator of what is to come in 2011, should the MDC parties decide to participate, in what is proving already, to be a deeply flawed process towards an election. For SADC, the message that South Africa President and SADC Mediator to Zimbabwe, Jacob Zuma, emphasized at the August SADC Heads of States summit in Windhoek, Namibia, that Zimbabwe must hold a free, fair and violence free election, must be put into practical steps by defining, speaking out and ensuring that the violence of 2008 and that of September/October is not repeated. SADC has an obligation, at least, to guarantee and put pressure on President Mugabe to put his dogs on a leash to ensure a peaceful election.
They are many dimensions that make the planned 2011 election dangerous for Zimbabwe. Despite his public pronouncements on his health and age which are becoming more desperate by the week, President Mugabe is visibly tired and slowing down. And the varying and contesting factions in ZANU PF are all aware of this fact of life. 2011 is the last chance for President Mugabe to find a solution to the dangerously delayed succession question in ZANU PF and possibly the leadership of the country should his party remain in power. Dangerously delayed because President Mugabe has demonstrated over the years his wish that this moment never comes. By the will of God and nature the question finally has come, whether he likes it or not. The danger that he faces is that the levers of the party are beginning to slip off his hands and control. His trusted lieutenants, the likes of Ignatius Chombo, his close relatives Leo Mugabe and others are nowhere near the centre of power. He is confused and unaware of the intentions of the two rival factions that he has played one against each other over the years, that is General Solomon Mujuru and Defence Minister Emmerson Munangagwa camps. While the Mujuru camp has gained ascendency with the appointment of Joice Mujuru as Vice President, Mugabe still does not trust this camp which he sees as cozying up too much to the MDC and western powers and possibly prepared to cut a deal with the MDC. The Munangagwa camp represents the shock-troops that Mugabe has relied on in times of need, but this camp has lost ground politically in Zimbabwe and ZANU PF. Its leader Munangagwa was trounced in his constituency of Kwekwe and had to seek a political home elsewhere. While Munangagwa was expected to give up in view of the ascendency of VP Mujuru, he is reported to have told his supporters that some people are seated at fireplaces with no fire (kudziya zvoto zvisina moto ), meaning they are placeholders , misled or misinformed. This rivalry, Mugabe will have a hard time resolving while maintaining control on the levers of the party and protecting his own legacy, relatives and empire. This coupled with the fact that ZANU PF itself does not understand what the powerful Military Generals are thinking and planning, apart from the fact that they would want to see ZANU PF in power. The Generals who are part of the generality of war veterans are known to refer to a pact that states that they should be given a chance after the political leaders or nationalists who joined them in the liberation struggle in Mozambique and Zambia have had their chance at the throne. The Generals might as well want a fulfillment of that ‘pact’. The violence being witnessed in Harare might as well be coming and being organized by one faction in ZANU PF with intentions of poisoning the status quo and disrupt any process that might lead or result in the MDC winning an election and/or another faction in ZANU PF winning control of the party and an election. Despite the seemingly unending flow of energy, President Mugabe is now a prisoner of a situation of his own making. The hyenas in his party are all circling and waiting to pounce. This situation is dangerous not only for those in ZANU PF but for the whole country. This is so because since independence ZANU PF has fused the party and the state to such as extent that there is no difference. The MDC parties in the GNU will testify to how a cleaner in their offices at Munhumutapa and security guard at the entrance to Munhumutapa building are not only civil servants but war veterans, branch or district leaders of the ZANU PF party and activists who can perpetrate violence against the same MDC Minister they probably serves tea at the office. At the top the linkages are even murky. This scenario means that should the factions in ZANU PF realize that the Emperor has lost control and go for each other, the Zimbabwe state, as we know it today, will collapse. At some moment, Zimbabwe has the possibility of reaching the post Siadi Barre, Somalia scenario. The unstoppable machine faces many challenges both within and without, and it is critical that all these issues be taken into consideration as the MDC parties decide on participation in an election in 2011. Civil society needs to pull its socks, possibly right to its neck, in seeking to avoid a total collapse of the Zimbabwe state and seek the protection of lives. What is at stake for Zimbabweans is not just a free and fair election but survival. SADC must be prepared for more tumultuous times to come. //End//
Rashweat Mukundu is Human rights activist and a journalist he can be reached on rashweatm@yahoo.com
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